Neodymium prices summer 2026: what happened after the January-February spike

The spike happened in January and February, not in May

According to Trading Economics quotes for neodymium oxide (CNY per tonne) [1], the sharp price rise in 2026 occurred at the turn of January and February, not in May. On 12 January the price stood at 787,500 CNY/t. By 10 February, in 29 days, it had risen to 1,065,000 CNY/t - a 35% increase. The peak of the whole cycle came on 27 February: 1,155,000 CNY/t, 47% above the start of January.

A version claiming a 100% price spike in May 2026 is circulating. The price data does not support this. May was actually the opposite of what is being described: the price fell from 1,045,000 CNY/t at the start of the month to 935,000 CNY/t by its end, a 10.5% drop. The month of the sharp rise was February, which alone delivered +19.7%, following +27.4% in January.

Dated quotes: from September 2021 to today

The table below sets out successive neodymium price readings from the Trading Economics series [1], from the earliest available point up to the current week.

What happened between May and September 2026

After the May decline of 10.5%, the market began to rebound: June delivered +6.1%, reaching 992,500 CNY/t. July and August brought small downward corrections, of -0.8% and -3% respectively, bringing the price to 955,000 CNY/t. At the start of September the quote remained at the same level, unchanged month over month [1].

As a result, the market stabilised in the 950,000-1,000,000 CNY/t range - higher than a year earlier (+21.68% year over year as of 07.09.2026), but clearly below the February peak of 1,155,000 CNY/t. The scale of month-over-month fluctuations in this period was already in single digits, unlike the double-digit moves seen in January, February, March and May.

Why the two sources report different figures

Trading Economics [1] reports the metal price in CNY per tonne, based on Chinese quotations. Strategic Metals Invest [2] reports the retail price for a private investor in USD per kilogram - higher than the Chinese benchmark, because it includes distribution margins and the cost of small lots. On 04.09.2026 Strategic Metals Invest reported USD 244.90/kg, up 64.03% since the start of 2026 and up 66.60% year over year.

Both series agree on the direction and order of magnitude of the changes - a strong rise in the first months of 2026, a correction in the second quarter, a level clearly higher than a year earlier. They do not agree on the price level, because they measure two different links in the chain: the wholesale quote for the metal and the retail price for the end of the supply chain. Converting one value into the other would additionally require an exchange rate that neither source states directly as part of the quote - which is why in this article both series are cited separately, without combining them into a single figure.

What this means for procurement

Volatility on the order of a dozen or several dozen percent month over month, as shown by the quotes from the first half of 2026, is a normal occurrence in this period, not a deviation from the rule. A neodymium magnet supply contract signed without an indexation clause, at this scale of fluctuation, transfers the entire price risk onto one of the parties - regardless of which party happens to benefit from a given price move at any given time.

Planning stock in units of production runtime rather than as a fixed number of pieces makes it easier to respond to fluctuations of this scale - it allows the purchasing decision to be deferred until it becomes clear whether a given price move is lasting, or a correction like the one in May 2026. It is also worth establishing, when negotiating contracts, which price series (wholesale or retail) any pricing clause is based on, in order to avoid a dispute over which source is the correct one.

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