Russia Promises REE: Will neodymium magnets really get cheaper? Realistic forecast 2026–2028

05.11.2025|Dariusz Ostrowski

On November 4, 2025, Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the development of rare earth elements (REE). Russia declares a jump in production to 50 thousand t/year by 2030. It sounds like a breakthrough, but the history of Russian mega-projects calls for caution. Will neodymium magnet prices drop, or is this another propaganda? We analyze facts, risks and real scenarios.

Magnet power

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Neodymium Magnets – Why are they expensive and unstable?

Neodymium magnets (NdFeB) are the strongest permanent magnets. Their core – neodymium (Nd) – comes from REE.
China controls:

70% of mining
90% of processing (separation of Nd, Pr, Dy)

From April 2025, export restrictions from Beijing increased neodymium price by 20% – from 120 thousand USD/t to 180 thousand USD/t. In Poland, N38 10x2 mm magnet costs today 0.29-0.32 PLN/pc. in wholesale (a year ago: 0.20-0.23 PLN/pc.).

Applications (and supply problems):

EV: 1.5–2 kg Nd/engine
Wind turbines: 300–400 kg Nd/MW
Industry: separators, engines, medicine (MRI)

Any disruption in China = delays and price increases.

Putin's Decree: Ambitious goals, old problems

On November 4, 2025, the REE roadmap was published. By December 1, the government is to approve it.
Goals by 2030:

Mining ↑ to 50 thousand t/year (from ~2.7 thousand t)
Production ↑ by 245% (1.23 billion USD/year)
Import ↓ from 75% to 45%

Russia has 12–28 million t of REE reserves (5th place in the world). But for decades, it has been mining only 1–2% globally.

Key projects – on paper:

Tomtor (Yakutia): 154 million t of ore, 9.5% REE. From May 2025: Rosneft. Start: 2026–2027? Realistically: 2028–2030 (logistics, frost -60°C, lack of roads)
Lovozerskoye (Kola): the only mine, 2500 t/year – processing in China
Zashikhinskoye: REE + tantal – still in exploration
Separation plants (Rosatom): Krasnokamensk, Solikamsk – pilot, lack of scale

Problem: Russia lacks full-cycle processing technology. 90% of expertise – Chinese or Western (under sanctions).

Neodymium price forecast: Cautious scenarios

Year	Nd Price (USD/t)	Probability
2025	160–190 thousand	95%
2026	150–180 thousand	70%
2027	130–170 thousand	50%
2028	110–160 thousand	30%

Factors against declines:

Delays in Tomtor: history of Russian projects – 3–5 years slippage
Sanctions: lack of access to separation technology (Germany, Japan)
China counterattacks: may flood the market with cheap Nd to eliminate competition
Logistics: Yakutia – 6000 km from ports, winter 9 months

Factors for declines (if successful):

Oversupply 5–10 thousand t NdPr/year from 2028
EU recycling (goal: 25% Nd from waste)
New mines: Australia, USA, Vietnam

Real scenario: prices will remain high until 2027, decline by 20–30% only 2028–2030 – if projects start.

Poland and EU: Still dependent

Poland imports 100% REE. Russia opens projects to investors, but:

EU sanctions block cooperation
KGHM/Azoty – talks on separation in Puławy, but without funding
Recycling: Łukasiewicz-IMN recovers 1–2 t Nd/year – a drop in the ocean

Critical Raw Materials Act: ambitious goals, slow implementation. By 2030: 10% mining in the EU – unrealistic.

Risks for Companies

2026: stock depletion → prices +15%
2027: sanctions on Russia → Nd from Tomtor unavailable in EU
2028+: if Russia enters – dumping, but under Kremlin control

Recommendations:

Long-term contracts with suppliers from Australia/USA
Stocks for 18–24 months
Investment in recycling (ROI: 3–5 years)

Summary: Don't Count on a Miracle

Russia has deposits, but lacks technology, infrastructure and trust. Tomtor may start – but not in 2026.
Realistic forecast:

Neodymium prices high until 2028.
Decline by 20–30% only 2028–2030 – and only if no new sanctions
China will remain dominant

REE market is a geopolitical game. Russia plays va banque – but history teaches that it loses.

Common Questions

Will Russia become a new power in neodymium production?

On paper yes, but in practice, technology and infrastructure are lacking. Russia has huge deposits (e.g., Tomtor), but launching them will take years, and sanctions hinder access to Western mining equipment.

What is the NdFeB price forecast for 2026-2028?

Not sooner than in 3-4 years. Currently, the market is tight, and Russian promises are a melody of the future. By 2027, one should expect stabilization or increases rather than drops.

What does Russia plan regarding critical element extraction?

The goal is self-sufficiency and entering the global top tier of producers. The Kremlin wants to reduce imports from 75% to 45% by 2030, but this requires gigantic investments and technology.

Source:

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#neodymium magnets#neodymium magnet price#rare earth elements Russia#neodymium 2026#REE Putin#neodymium price

środa 2025-11-05T12:00:00

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