Seabed rare earth mining: Japan's revolution around Minamitori Island

Introduction: treasure hidden in the Pacific depths

Rare earths – a group of 17 chemical elements, from lanthanum to lutetium – are the fuel of the modern world. They power magnets in electric motors of Tesla cars, lasers in smartphones, catalysts in wind turbines and chips in AI servers. Without them, the green revolution would stop halfway. Today, the world consumes more and more of them: according to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand for neodymium and dysprosium – key for permanent magnets – will increase 7-10 times by 2040. And who controls these raw materials? China, with a 90-percent share in global production and processing. In 2025, Beijing, in response to trade tensions with the US and allies, introduced new export restrictions on seven rare earths and related magnets, halting supplies even to Japan and the United States [1].

This event, called by analysts "REE Shock 2025", accelerated Japanese plans. Minamitorishima, with its "semi-infinite" deposits of mud rich in these metals, becomes a symbol of hope – and controversy.

The project, led by the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) in collaboration with the University of Tokyo and the Nippon Foundation, assumes test extraction in January 2026. The goal is to lift 35 tons of mud from the ocean floor at a depth of 5-6 km, to test the technology and assess profitability [2]. If successful, Japan could become independent from imports, and the world would gain an alternative to Chinese dominance. But the price? Not only financial – estimated at hundreds of millions of yen per mission – but also ecological. Deep-sea ecosystems, delicate like a spider's web, may suffer irreversible destruction. Is this a revolution or a time bomb under the green transformation?

In this article, we dive into the depths of the topic. From geology to geopolitics, from technology to ethics – we trace why Minamitorishima can change the face of the global economy. Because in 2025, when the world fights for clean air and raw material sovereignty, the ocean is no longer just blue, but a strategic front.

What are rare earths? The foundation of modern civilization

Rare earths, in English *rare earth elements* (REE), are not "earths" in the sense of soil, but a group of metals that, despite the name, are not so rare in the Earth's crust. However, they occur in low concentrations, making their extraction costly and complicated. The group includes 17 elements: scandium, yttrium and 15 lanthanides (from lanthanum to lutetium). Chemically similar, they form unique alloys and compounds, key for advanced technologies.

Take neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr) – a duo in neodymium magnets (NdFeB), the strongest permanent magnets in the world. One electric motor in a Toyota Prius contains as much as a small smartphone weighs. Dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) improve the stability of these magnets at high temperatures, which is essential in wind turbines and EV cars. Lanthanum (La) and cerium (Ce) catalyze reactions in batteries and exhaust filters. And europium (Eu) glows red in LED screens.

Why are they "rare"? Not because of quantity – there are more of them in the Earth's crust than copper – but distribution. Deposits are usually monazite or bastnasite, mixed with other minerals, requiring toxic processing (using sulfuric and hydrofluoric acids). China dominated the market in the 1980s, with cheap costs and subsidies, producing 240 thousand tons annually from the Bayan Obo mine today. The rest of the world? Australia (Lynas), USA (Mountain Pass) and Brazil fight for 10% share.

In 2025, REE are not a luxury, but a necessity. Global consumption grew from 100 thousand tons in 2010 to 280 thousand in 2024, driven by EV (40% demand), renewables (20%) and electronics (15%). IEA forecasts that by 2030 the market will reach 500 thousand tons, with neodymium prices jumping from 60 to 100 USD/kg after Chinese restrictions [3].

For Poland, with KGHM and LG Chem investing in batteries, this is a challenge: the European Union imports 98% of REE from China, threatening Green Deal goals.

But REE are not just tech – it's a geopolitical weapon. In 2010, China halted exports to Japan after the Senkaku Islands dispute, raising prices by 500%. In 2025, after new controls, the US and Japan signed a framework for extraction technology exchange, aiming for diversification [4].

Minamitorishima fits into this trend: its mud is not polymetallic nodules, but deposits rich in phosphates and REE, formed from biogenic deposits millions of years ago.

In summary, rare earths are the blood of the digital era. Without them, there is no AI, no net zero. Japan, importing 90% from China, sees rescue in the ocean – but is it sustainable?

Discovery and resources: Minamitorishima's treasure

Minamitorishima, a coral island with an area of 1.5 km², uninhabited and protected as a bird reserve, hides a treasury beneath it. The discovery began in 2013, when the JAMSTEC expedition (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) collected mud samples from the continental shelf. Analyses revealed REE concentrations at 1000-2000 ppm – 10 times higher than in Chinese land mines [5].

Geology? The key is "REY-rich mud" – mud rich in rare earths and yttrium (REY). It formed from phosphate precipitation and biogenic remnants (shells, fish bones) from the Eocene era, 34 million years ago. Volcanoes and ocean currents concentrated them in a 10-20 cm layer on the bottom, over an area of 2500 km² in Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Estimates: 16-120 million tons of mud with 1.3-16 million tons of REE, including 610 thousand tons of cobalt, 740 thousand tons of nickel and thousands of tons of neodymium, dysprosium [6].

Value? At 2025 prices (neodymium 80 USD/kg), it's 26 billion USD – enough for decades of Japanese EV and wind turbine production.

In 2024, the University of Tokyo confirmed: even a small fragment of the area contains 16 million tons of mud, with "semi-infinite" resources in the entire EEZ [7].

This is not polymetallic nodules like in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, but a unique sediment, easier to separate (no sulfur, low radioactivity). Studies from 2018 in *Nature* emphasized the potential: this mud has "enormous quantity and beneficial mineralogical features" [5].

Expeditions in 2025, funded by the Nippon Foundation, collected 100 samples, confirming concentrations. But the challenge: depth 5-6 km, pressure 600 atm, absolute darkness. ROV robots (Remotely Operated Vehicles) like Kaiko had to dive to 10 km to map the bottom with sonar and 4K cameras. Satellite data and AI models simulate currents, minimizing turbulence.

For the world, this is a game-changer. China has 44 million tons of land reserves, but oceanic deposits – like those in Japan, USA (Hawaii) or India – can add 20-30% to global resources. In Poland, with battery plans in Jaworzno, this is a chance for cheaper supplies via EU-Japan alliances.

However, the discovery is a double-edged sword: tempting wealth, but protected by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Japan, as a signatory, must prove sustainability.

History and geopolitical context: from the 2010 crisis to REE Shock 2025

The history of Japan's pursuit of REE dates back to the 1970s, when the electronics boom revealed dependence on imports. In 1980, China entered the market, lowering prices by 80%, killing Western mines. Japan, consuming 30% of global demand, invested in recycling (60% recovery from waste) and alternatives, but without success.

Breakthrough crisis 2010: after the incident with a Chinese trawler near Senkaku, Beijing halted REE exports to Japan for 2 months. Prices jumped from 10 to 500 USD/kg, paralyzing Toyota and Panasonic factories. Japan responded with diversification: agreements with Australia (Lynas), Vietnam and USA (MP Materials). By 2025, dependence fell to 60% [8].

In 2025, geopolitics escalated. In April, China imposed controls on 7 REE (lanthanum, cerium, neodymium etc.) and magnets, blocking exports to "all countries" under the pretext of national security [1].

This is "REE Shock" – according to CSIS, it threatens US defense supply chains (F-35, drones). Trump, in response, signed bilateral agreements with Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam for extraction and processing [4].

Japan-USA framework from October 2025 divides technologies: USA robotics tech, Japan data from Minamitorishima [9].

Broader context: Indo-Pacific is an arena of rivalry. China builds a mining fleet in the South China Sea, USA – Inflation Reduction Act subsidizes domestic REE. Japan, without land deposits, looks to the ocean. Minamitorishima, in EEZ, is legally safe, but provocative: in 2024 Chinese ships circled nearby, testing reactions.

For Europe, including Poland, this is a lesson. UE's Critical Raw Materials Act (2023) aims for 10% internal extraction by 2030, but oceanic options like Japanese ones inspire. KGHM considers partnerships with Japan for nickel and cobalt from mud.

History shows: REE is not a raw material, but a currency of power. Japan, with the trauma of 2010, bets on Minamitorishima as a shield.

Extraction technology: robots in the abyss

Extraction from 6 km depth is an engineering nightmare. Traditional land mines? Forget it. Here, a hybrid of oceanography, robotics and AI is needed. Japan, pioneer in ROV (e.g. Shinkai 6500, diving to 6.5 km), adapts tech from JAMSTEC.

Key: "vacuuming" system – robotic suction heads sucking mud from the bottom, lifting it through pressure pipes to the mother ship. In the 2026 test, they will use MV Kairei, with a 10-ton crane and magnetic separators to separate REE from sediments [10].

Process: 1) Mapping with multifrequency sonar (1 cm resolution). 2) Deployment ROV with 8K cameras and chemical sensors. 3) Suction under 500 bar pressure, with anti-sediment filters. 4) On surface: flotation and acid extraction, with 90% water recycling.

Challenges: pressure crushes steel, ocean currents (up to 1 knot) carry dust for hundreds of km. Solution? AI from MIT/Japan: predictive algorithms minimize turbulence, simulating 10^6 scenarios. Cost? 150 million yen per mission, but scalable to 1 million tons/year at 100 USD/kg [2].

Comparison: The Metals Company in the Pacific uses similar robots for nodules, but Minamitorishima is deeper and "softer" (mud vs. hard lumps). Japan tests bio-inspired suckers, mimicking jellyfish, to reduce noise (to 120 dB, so as not to scare whales).

In 2025, prototypes passed simulations in AIST pools. Future: autonomous AUV drones, robot swarms like in sci-fi. This is not just tech – it's a lesson for the world on how to extract without destroying.

Japan's plans: from 2026 tests to full production

In July 2025, METI announced: January 2026, 3-week test – 35 tons of mud, analysis in Tokyo labs [2].

Delay from 2024 due to equipment supplies, but goal: 2027 pilot, 2028 commercial. Budget: 2 billion yen annually, with subsidies for companies like Sumitomo.

Schedule: 2026 – tech validation. 2027 – 100 tons, processing test. 2028 – integration with chain (factories in Fukushima). Goal: 5% global demand for neodymium from ocean by 2030.

Partnerships: USA for tech, Australia for refining. For Japan, this is independence: from 60% imports to 20% [11].

Challenges and environmental risks: dark side of the depths

Ecology? Catastrophe in slow motion. Mud is habitat for chemosynthetic bacteria, worms and deep-sea shrimps – a unique ecosystem, sun-free, based on methane [12].

Suction will remove substrate, creating "deserts" for decades; sediments in the plume will poison the food chain, killing plankton and fish on the surface.

GEOMAR studies (2022-2025) show: one mining session raises turbulence over 100 km², with toxins (cobalt) in water for 10 years [13].

Experts in *Science* call for a pause: "Irreversible losses to biodiversity" [12].

Japan promises monitoring (cameras, DNA metabarcoding), but critics: "Too little, too late" [14].

For oceans, DSM is a new era of threats – alongside warming.

Economic and global impact: paradigm shift

Economically: 26 billion USD is a boost for Japanese GDP (0.5% growth). Globally: 20% price drop, supply chain diversification. For EU – cheaper batteries, for China – pressure for reforms.

But costs: 1-2 USD/kg extra for depths, plus regulations.

Future and alternatives: recycling or ocean?

Alternatives: recycling (currently 1% REE), new deposits (Gröna in Sweden). But ocean is inevitable – with moderation?

Conclusion: balance between progress and caution

Minamitorishima is a gateway to a new era. Japan leads, but the world must watch to not drown the future in the depths.