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Russia Promises REE: Will neodymium magnets really get cheaper? Realistic forecast 2026–2028

On November 4, 2025, Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the development of rare earth elements (REE). Russia declares a jump in production to 50 thousand t/year by 2030. It sounds like a breakthrough, but the history of Russian mega-projects calls for caution. Will neodymium magnet prices drop, or is this another propaganda? We analyze facts, risks and real scenarios.

Neodymium Magnets – Why are they expensive and unstable?

Neodymium magnets (NdFeB) are the strongest permanent magnets. Their core – neodymium (Nd) – comes from REE.
China controls:

70% of mining
90% of processing (separation of Nd, Pr, Dy)

From April 2025, export restrictions from Beijing increased neodymium price by 20% – from 120 thousand USD/t to 180 thousand USD/t. In Poland, N38 10x2 mm magnet costs today 0.29-0.32 PLN/pc. in wholesale (a year ago: 0.20-0.23 PLN/pc.).

Applications (and supply problems):

EV: 1.5–2 kg Nd/engine
Wind turbines: 300–400 kg Nd/MW
Industry: separators, engines, medicine (MRI)

Any disruption in China = delays and price increases.

Putin's Decree: Ambitious goals, old problems

On November 4, 2025, the REE roadmap was published. By December 1, the government is to approve it.
Goals by 2030:

Mining ↑ to 50 thousand t/year (from ~2.7 thousand t)
Production ↑ by 245% (1.23 billion USD/year)
Import ↓ from 75% to 45%

Russia has 12–28 million t of REE reserves (5th place in the world). But for decades, it has been mining only 1–2% globally.

Key projects – on paper:

Tomtor (Yakutia): 154 million t of ore, 9.5% REE. From May 2025: Rosneft. Start: 2026–2027? Realistically: 2028–2030 (logistics, frost -60°C, lack of roads)
Lovozerskoye (Kola): the only mine, 2500 t/year – processing in China
Zashikhinskoye: REE + tantal – still in exploration
Separation plants (Rosatom): Krasnokamensk, Solikamsk – pilot, lack of scale

Problem: Russia lacks full-cycle processing technology. 90% of expertise – Chinese or Western (under sanctions).

Neodymium price forecast: Cautious scenarios

Year	Nd Price (USD/t)	Probability
2025	160–190 thousand	95%
2026	150–180 thousand	70%
2027	130–170 thousand	50%
2028	110–160 thousand	30%

Factors against declines:

Delays in Tomtor: history of Russian projects – 3–5 years slippage
Sanctions: lack of access to separation technology (Germany, Japan)
China counterattacks: may flood the market with cheap Nd to eliminate competition
Logistics: Yakutia – 6000 km from ports, winter 9 months

Factors for declines (if successful):

Oversupply 5–10 thousand t NdPr/year from 2028
EU recycling (goal: 25% Nd from waste)
New mines: Australia, USA, Vietnam

Real scenario: prices will remain high until 2027, decline by 20–30% only 2028–2030 – if projects start.

Poland and EU: Still dependent

Poland imports 100% REE. Russia opens projects to investors, but:

EU sanctions block cooperation
KGHM/Azoty – talks on separation in Puławy, but without funding
Recycling: Łukasiewicz-IMN recovers 1–2 t Nd/year – a drop in the ocean

Critical Raw Materials Act: ambitious goals, slow implementation. By 2030: 10% mining in the EU – unrealistic.

Risks for Companies

2026: stock depletion → prices +15%
2027: sanctions on Russia → Nd from Tomtor unavailable in EU
2028+: if Russia enters – dumping, but under Kremlin control

Recommendations:

Long-term contracts with suppliers from Australia/USA
Stocks for 18–24 months
Investment in recycling (ROI: 3–5 years)

Summary: Don't Count on a Miracle

Russia has deposits, but lacks technology, infrastructure and trust. Tomtor may start – but not in 2026.
Realistic forecast:

Neodymium prices high until 2028.
Decline by 20–30% only 2028–2030 – and only if no new sanctions
China will remain dominant

REE market is a geopolitical game. Russia plays va banque – but history teaches that it loses.

Source:

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#neodymium magnets#neodymium magnet price#rare earth elements Russia#neodymium 2026#REE Putin#neodymium price

środa 2025-11-05T12:00:00