Duration and details of china’s neodymium magnet export restrictions – august 2025

Context and introduction to the 2025 neodymium magnet export restrictions

Date of implementation: Restrictions took effect on April 4, 2025, under Announcement No. 18 from the Ministry of Commerce of China (MOFCOM) and the General Administration of Customs. They apply to neodymium magnets, seven key REEs (samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, yttrium), as well as derivatives such as high-performance Dy/Tb permanent magnets.
Form of restrictions: Not a total ban, but mandatory export licenses. Without a license, shipments are blocked, resulting in a 51% drop in deliveries in April 2025. Justification: national security protection and international commitments (non-proliferation).
Impact on the global market: China controls over 90% of global neodymium magnet production, disrupting supply chains in automotive (EVs), renewable energy, defense, and electronics. Licensing process: application to MOFCOM with an End-Use Statement, technical specifications (e.g., N42–N52 grade), recipient data; processing time 20–45 days, with priority for civilian applications (EVs, medical), and rejections for military use (USA).
Costs and challenges: No official fees, but additional documentation/logistics costs. Customs inspections: 30–45-day holds. Dependence on China creates disruption risks, similar to sanctions-related supply shocks in 2025.

Duration of export restrictions – timeline and current status as of august 2025

These export restrictions have no defined end date – they are permanent regulations subject to adjustments through negotiations. We expect them to continue through the end of 2025. Key events from April to August 2025:

Implications of export restrictions and what they mean for the world in 2025

Long-term: Indefinite restrictions (likely until January 2026, with possible extensions depending on international negotiations), adjustable through talks (e.g., US–China, where China could ease restrictions in exchange for trade concessions, such as those seen in agreements with the Trump administration). Diversifying supply is essential to reduce disruption risks: for example, MP Materials in the US aims to produce 2,000 tons of NdFeB by the end of 2025 (<1% of China’s global scale, highlighting dependence on Beijing); the EU is investing in mines (e.g., Sweden’s Norrbotten project focusing on dysprosium and neodymium, and initiatives in Germany such as a Saxony project supported by EU green transition funds).

Industry impact: EV/renewables: production stoppages (e.g., Ford shut a plant in May 2025 due to REE shortages, affecting EV deliveries); defense: delays in programs like Lockheed Martin’s F-35 (US reported halts in magnet component deliveries in June 2025); Chinese producers: revenue declines of 15–75% (companies like JL MAG Rare-Earth reported quarterly losses due to licensing restrictions). Global REE demand is expected to triple by 2030 according to IEA, underscoring the urgent need for alternative sources for sustainable development.

REE and magnet prices: Increases >500% in May/June 2025 (e.g., neodymium rose from $50/kg to over $300/kg at the crisis peak); stabilization in August (prices down 20–30% thanks to June agreements, but still 150% above January 2025), with escalation risk after August 11 (end of the 90-day suspension could trigger new licensing blockages). Dysprosium oxide: hit $204/kg in May 2025, directly impacting the cost of high-temperature NdFeB magnets.

Geopolitics: China’s trade weapon (Beijing uses its 95% REE market dominance to pressure the West, restricting exports selectively, e.g., for the US defense sector); response to US/EU tariffs (restrictions as retaliation for April 2025 tariffs on Chinese EVs and tech); similar to the 2010 Japan crisis (when China halted REE exports after a territorial dispute, triggering global price surges of 700%). Research into HRE-free magnets (without heavy REEs like Dy/Tb): offering similar magnetic properties at room temperature (e.g., Korean and EU projects) but lower thermal resistance (up to 150°C instead of 200°C), requiring further investment in hybrid technologies.

Summary

China’s export restrictions on neodymium magnets (NdFeB) in 2025 have become the new normal. Introduced on April 4, 2025, MOFCOM licenses (Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China) have drastically limited raw material supplies. Since April 2025, prices have risen by over 500% (neodymium: >$300/kg), threatening EV and renewable energy production. Advance payment scams (license cost: $720 per shipment) significantly raise costs for small-scale orders. Stockpiling is recommended while market availability lasts – shortages could paralyze the market. Diversification remains crucial at this stage.